Podcast Transcription: Metal Monday Ep. 11 - 3.15.2021

Host, Nick Snyder, and guest Eddie Orenstein talk about their weekend shenanigans and the market prices for the week of March 15, 2021.

Nick:

All right, welcome everybody. I am sitting here with a special guest from, where are you at? Are you in Ohio?


Eddie Orenstein:

Columbus, Ohio.


Nick:

Okay. I'm here with Eddie. How are you doing Eddie? Do you want to introduce yourself real quick to the audience?


Eddie Orenstein:

Eddie Orenstein here, with Alliance Recycling Group out of Minneapolis.


Nick:

Very good. We-


Eddie Orenstein:

What other introduction do I need?


Nick:

Yeah, there you go. We appreciate you joining us today. Hey, we like to use this to give people a quick market update and you're the expert as far as I'm concerned, on the brass, coppers, and probably many, many other things. What do you feel like copper is going to do? You think it's going to hang on or you think we're in due for a dip?


Eddie Orenstein:

I think the $4 is the new bottom. We seem to be testing the highs again, $4.15, we got up to $4.19, couldn't get past $4.20. Markets all the way around, do not seem to want to go down. The demand is there.


Nick:

Why do you think that is?


Eddie Orenstein:

There isn't the scrap. The scrap is short and demand is firm, and it's not only just firm in China, it's firm in the US all the way through... Hey, I know there's copper being sold into Greece, copper being sold into Russia, and the Europeans got their fill here back a ways, and they've kind of backed off a little bit. But the supply isn't there. Last week, then again I don't know if we talk spreads or anything on this or not, but I saw some-


Nick:

Go ahead.


Eddie Orenstein:

Hey, last week I saw spreads at some places between minus 47 and minus 53. Those consumers a day, might've widened an extra three cents, but were able to do some buying-


Nick:

For what? What material is that for?


Eddie Orenstein:

Oh, I'm sorry. I'm looking at number two copper.


Nick:

For number two?


Eddie Orenstein:

Yep, my mistake. Because most people, if you look at the periodicals and stuff, they're looking at what, 57 to 62 under the ramp. A lot of people are still shy to make the export packages. So, that's somewhat the reason we have the wider numbers. Those that can go to China are receiving I believe, somewhere around minus 40, minus 42 CNF if they can make the package.


Nick:

Great. Yeah, I feel like you hit it right on the head, four's our new bottom. And where did we get? We got to $4.33, is that the top we've got to?


Eddie Orenstein:

No, we actually were $4.--, I actually wrote it down, we were actually somewhere around $4.36.


Nick:

Okay.


Eddie Orenstein:

When we grabbed back down to about $4.09. Look, I still put the target, the highest we were at ever, was about $4.62 and change. I'm expecting them to keep taking out highs. That's why I think a lot of people have thought like 10,000 on LME and $4.50 on COMEX seems to be reachable.


Nick:

Yeah, love to see it. I think it could possibly get there. I think we can get there.


Eddie Orenstein:

Yeah I mean, if you look at the export prices for bare bright and number one, they're really as competitive as the Midwest markets, so those items can still flow-export easily. The number two I believe, some people are actually starting to sort a little bit, you know me and my sorting situation. When you're looking at-


Nick:

Yeah.


Eddie Orenstein:

Go ahead.


Nick:

No, I'm listening to you, you keep going.


Eddie Orenstein:

Oh, there's about a 30 to 35 cent premium for you to sort your copper out.


Nick:

Okay.


Eddie Orenstein:

So more people should be doing that if they want to... Like I say, if number two copper is going for 62 and the upgraded items being the tin-plated, being the enameled, being the under-gauged number one items like that, you're probably looking anywhere, sales from minus 30 to minus 40.


Nick:

Gotcha. What are you seeing for steel over there?


Eddie Orenstein:

For steel?


Nick:

Yeah. For your iron pricing over there.


Eddie Orenstein:

The iron pricing, I'm just not up on, I'll tell you that when-


Nick:

Okay, you're going on just the red metals.


Eddie Orenstein:

Was up 70. It's a little difficult out of the Midwest. So I really don't follow the iron prices. The big, the other one is aluminum.


Nick:

Yeah?


Eddie Orenstein:

Aluminum, they tried to beat it down and it came back stronger than ever. We've now seen premiums, what? They're up to $18.70 today. They jumped another penny and a half.


Nick:

Okay.


Eddie Orenstein:

And we hadn't been here what? Two months ago we were sitting around a plus 12.


Nick:

Okay.


Eddie Orenstein:

And we've seen that taken out. Export on aluminum is excellent. What I've seen with the brasses and type of situation is the exporters were very strong, seven to eight cents over to domestics here, but two and a half or three months ago, then all of a sudden the exporters dropped their numbers. Or they didn't drop, they stayed sideways. And in order for domestic consumers to get material, they had to raise their prices three to five cents a pound.


Nick:

Gotcha.


Eddie Orenstein:

And now it looks like the export numbers to the domestic numbers are almost on par.


Nick:

Okay, that's good, it's very simple.


Eddie Orenstein:

And actually, it is good. Especially if you make the Chinese package for yellow brass. The Chinese package versus the non-Chinese package is about six to seven cents lower.


Nick:

Yeah, I've seen that. Okay well, things are still looking good and we'll see where iron goes. We are hearing rumblings on our end, that some people are trying to talk it down in April. I don't really buy it still.


Eddie Orenstein:

Well, they talked it down in February.


Nick:

Yeah, exactly. I don't quite buy it. It doesn't make sense to me, but we'll see what happens for our ferrous pricing.


Eddie Orenstein:

...gets out of Colorado this week.


Nick:

What's that?


Eddie Orenstein:

Denver had like four feet of snow or something.


Nick:

Yeah, I saw that this weekend and then-


Eddie Orenstein:

Then we had Dallas frozen up a week or two ago. So the weather still plays at the seasonal park.


Nick:

Yeah, it can affect it for sure. Over here, and in Boise, it feels like spring's here right now.


Eddie Orenstein: