Converter Recycling 2025: Hold. Fold. Sell.
In the iconic words of The Gambler, “You’ve got to know when to hold them, know when to fold them, know when to walk away, and know when to run.” These words ring truer than ever in today’s shifting platinum group metal (PGM) market. After the historic highs of 2021 and 2022, PGM prices have cooled significantly, with the average catalytic converter value dropping by more than half. Prices have held steady throughout 2024 (See charts below). Many recyclers are stockpiling converters in response—an increasingly risky move in light of record-breaking catalytic converter theft.
So, where are PGM prices heading in 2025? If only we had a crystal ball. Current market conditions draw parallels to the early 2000s, with a strong dollar, persistent inflation, global economic uncertainty, and supply disruptions from Russia and South Africa. Back then, palladium spiked to $1,100 per ounce before plunging 60% once production stabilized. Similarly, platinum hit a record-high of $2,250 per ounce in March 2008 amid South African supply issues, only to fall to $774 by November. And rhodium, which soared to $10,025 per ounce in 2008, crashed by 90% before the year’s end. These fluctuations remind us that while PGM prices can skyrocket, rebounds take time—often measured in years, not months.
According to Johnson Matthey’s 2024 PGM Market Report, the platinum market is poised to experience its largest supply shortfall in a decade. Primary supply is predicted to decline by 2%, with Russian shipments normalizing after significant sales of mined stocks in 2023. In South Africa, efforts to process untreated platinum stockpiles will help counterbalance restructuring by major PGM miners. Despite these supply challenges, demand for platinum is projected to remain robust, driven by investment in the glass industry and optimistic market sentiment. Automotive platinum use, though slightly contracting due to reduced diesel car production, will remain near fifteen-year highs.
Meanwhile, deficits in palladium and rhodium markets are expected to narrow. Automotive demand for these metals is forecast to decline as global gasoline car production slows and manufacturers reduce PGM content in catalytic converters to cut costs. However, secondary supply is increasing, particularly through improved automotive recycling in China, where processors are handling previously hoarded scrap. These developments have stabilized palladium and rhodium prices following the sharp declines of 2023, aided by the consumption of surplus inventory accumulated during the pandemic years.
For recyclers and investors, long-term strategy is key. Reflecting on my early career at Putnam Investments, I recall the importance of dollar-cost averaging—a method of managing price risk by consistently investing the same amount over time to achieve an average price. Applied to the recycling industry, this approach suggests that regularly selling converters, regardless of market prices, can help smooth out the highs and lows. Rather than holding onto large backlogs, consider selling your most recent acquisitions at today’s rates. If you partner with a reputable processor, you may also be able to process older inventory and hold the recovered metal on account, allowing you to sell later when prices improve.
Looking ahead, analysts predict platinum will play a vital role in the hydrogen economy, with the potential to surpass palladium in value over the next three to five years. Meanwhile, rhodium remains essential for reducing NOx emissions, with stricter global regulations driving increased demand.
The PGM market may be unpredictable, but with a measured, strategic approach, recyclers can navigate its ups and downs successfully. Whether you hold, fold, or sell, the key is to act with intention, not out of fear or speculation.
For daily updates on the PGM markets, subscribe to the United Catalyst Corporation daily e-newsletter, the 60-Second Report, click the link below or scan the QR code. To learn more about recycling converters on assay or the United Ecosystem Bid Tool, you can also call an Account Executive at 864-824-2003 or email a specialist at sales@unitedcatalystcorporation.com
Becky Berube has served the recycling community for over thirty years. Based in Greenville, South Carolina as President of United Catalyst Corporation, she writes a monthly educational column for the industry, and serves on several ARA and ReMa committees. She is a newly appointed Advisor on the US Industry Trade Advisory Committee on Critical Minerals. She was a recipient of a 2023 South Carolina Women in Business Award and is a mentor in the Women in PGMs program. Additionally, Becky serves as an At-Large Director of the ReMa Southeast Board, Co-Chair of the IPMI Preventing Auto Catalyst Theft Committee, and is on the Board of Directors of the International Precious Metals Institute (IPMI), where she is a past President.
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